Our Tingle Creek Chase stats guide points punters to five key trends
Hurdle Bet present their Tingle Creek Chase stats guide so what do five key trends tell us about the Sandown showpiece?
The Grade 1 Tingle Creek is a key Queen Mother Champion Chase trial despite being only 1m 7 1/2f.
Douvan from Willie Mullins’ stable heads the ante post betting on this contest for the 2017 renewal at Sandown.
Some true modern greats of horse racing like Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre have landed this.
Our Tingle Creek Chase stats guide looks at five key trends for this race at the Esher venue…
If history is any indicator, then older horses are less likely to win the Tingle Creek.
Horses aged seven and eight boast the best record in the race, contributing winners of 21 renewals, so that’s a plus for ante post market principals Douvan and Fox Norton.
Younger horses – those aged five and six – account for 10 victories, so that supports another fancy Politologue.
Those aged nine and over, however, have only won six renewals, so that suggests punters should avoid them.
Eight SP favourites or joint market leaders have come in during the last 12 Tingle Creek races.
That is a superb record for fancies and has plenty to do with multiple winners.
A total of 10 horses have won this race more than once, including Flagship Uberalles (1999, 2000 and 2001), Moscow Flyer (2003 and 2004), Kauto Star (2005 and 2006), Twist Magic (2007 and 2009), Master Minded (2008 and 2010) and Sire de Grugy (2013 and 2015).
While that doesn’t help us for this renewal with last year’s victor Un De Sceaux likely to stay in Ireland, the strong return of winning favourites is another tick for Mullins stablemate Douvan.
Three of the last five Tingle Creek winners had an official rating of 169.
That is the current BHA mark for Colin Tizzard’s Fox Norton.
With the race taking place off level weights, ratings aren’t as decisive a factor as they are in handicaps.
It’s interesting, however, that only three of the last dozen winners had a mark of less than 166.
Ditcheat handler Paul Nicholls is by some distance the most successful in Tingle Creek history, saddling six different horses to land the spoils nine times.
Those include the great Kauto Star and fellow multiple winner Master Minded, so it’s no surprise to see Nicholls double-handed with Politologue and San Benedeto this year.
Irish trainers when sending a strong fancy over have also done well in this Sandown showpiece.
Mullins had Un De Sceaux last year, while Henry de Bromhead scored in 2011 with Sizing Europe, so can Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Special Tiara come on for his reappearance run at Cheltenham?
French bred horses account for 10 of the last 12 Tingle Creek winners.
While not all of them began their racing careers across the Channel, this is a tremendous record.
It’s no surprise, then, that the leading contenders in this year’s renewal are all French bred.
Conclusion: Douvan ticks the most boxes, according to our Tingle Creek Chase stats guide, but there are reasons to support Fox Norton and Politologue too.
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